Reality Check: The Climate Change Predictions That Have Come True in 2025

Rising Global Temperatures

In 2015, scientists warned that global temperatures would continue to rise due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.62°F (0.90°C) above the 20th-century average, making 2015 the warmest year on record at the time and setting a worrying precedent. Over the past decade, those predictions have largely materialized.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global surface temperature was 1.09°C higher in the decade between 2011-2020 compared to the period between 1850-1900. By 2023, the global mean surface air temperature had risen 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels according to some estimates, briefly exceeding the critical 1.5°C threshold.

January 2025 was the warmest January on record, with temperatures 1.75°C higher than the late 19th-century average, surpassing previous records. This trend is expected to continue, with 2025 likely to be one of the top three warmest years globally. Scientists warn that sustained warming above the 1.5°C threshold will bring irreversible environmental and socio-economic consequences.

Arctic Ice Decline

In 2015, projections also indicated a sharp decline in Arctic sea ice due to rising global temperatures. Recent observations confirm this trend. The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report suggests that the Arctic is likely to be practically ice-free in September at least once before 2050 under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. However, some studies project this could happen earlier, potentially by the 2030s. Satellite imagery and climate monitoring data have also revealed drastic reductions in Arctic ice cover, further reinforcing the dire warnings issued a decade ago.

Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events

A decade ago, a consensus among several climate models and assessments, including those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other research institutions, predicted a surge in extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes, and floods. This has become a stark reality. The IPCC reports that hot extremes have become significantly more frequent and severe, while cold events have diminished.

Countries across the globe have experienced record-breaking heatwaves, devastating droughts, and unprecedented flooding, reinforcing the assessment that climate change is accelerating faster than previously expected. 2024 was marked by severe heatwaves around the world, with climate change contributing to an additional 41 days of dangerous heat on average.

The Amazon Basin experienced severe droughts, leading to significant wildfires and disruptions in ecosystems. There were also record-breaking floods in 2024 in regions like Europe, Asia, and Brazil. Hurricanes like Helene and Milton in the U.S. were also intensified by warmer ocean temperatures. In 2025, the World Meteorological Organization warns that record-breaking heat is likely to continue. The frequency and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones is also likely to increase.

Irreversible Climate Changes

10 years ago, scientists cautioned that certain climate changes would become irreversible on timescales of centuries to millennia. This has proven true with the continued melting of glaciers and the warming of oceans. Even if emissions were drastically reduced today, some effects, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the acidification of oceans, are expected to continue well beyond the 21st century.

Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

One of the most widely accepted climate predictions involved rising sea levels due to melting ice caps and thermal expansion. Over the past ten years, sea levels have steadily risen, increasing coastal flooding risks. From 1993 to 2024, global sea levels increased by 111 mm, with the rate of rise more than doubling over the past three decades, from 2.1 mm/year to 4.5 mm/year.

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report suggests that under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), sea level rise could reach up to 1.6 meters (about 5.25 feet) by 2100, but this includes low-confidence, high-impact processes like marine ice sheet instability (a process where marine ice sheets, which are grounded below sea level, become unstable due to warming). More typical projections suggest that the sea level could rise from about 0.65 to 1.01 meters (2.1 to 3.3 feet) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Sea level rise has already led to more frequent flooding in coastal areas, with some cities already experiencing annual extreme sea level events. Low-lying regions, particularly in Southeast Asia and island nations, are among the most vulnerable, facing increasing displacement threats.

Need for Emissions Reduction

A decade ago, climate experts stressed the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature rise below 2°C, with an ideal target of 1.5°C. However, global emissions have not declined at the necessary rate. Instead, the gap between emission levels and climate targets has widened, making it increasingly difficult to achieve the goals set under the Paris Agreement.

The 2021 IPCC report labeled the situation as a "code red for humanity," emphasizing the need for immediate, widespread emissions reductions. In 2023, global temperatures had reached 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels, and 2024 became the first full year above the 1.5°C mark.

Extended Wildfire Seasons

Climate models also anticipated that rising temperatures and drier conditions would extend and intensify wildfire seasons. In the past decade, wildfire seasons have become significantly longer, particularly in the western United States, Australia, and parts of Europe. Climate change has contributed to doubling the area of forest burned in recent decades, and projections indicate that wildfires will continue to increase in frequency and intensity by 2050. The number of wildfires is forecast to rise by up to 30% by 2050 and by 50% by the end of the century.

The financial and human costs of wildfires have escalated, with record-breaking damage seen in multiple regions. Recent examples include the devastating economic impacts of wildfires in regions like Los Angeles, which resulted in over 40,000 acres burned, more than 12,000 structures destroyed, and at least 24 fatalities reported, with total property losses estimated between $95 billion and $164 billion. The 2025 Los Angeles wildfires were among the most destructive in recent history, with insured losses potentially surpassing $20 billion, exceeding the $12.5 billion from the 2018 Camp Fire. The frequency and intensity of extreme wildfires have increased significantly, and climate change has played a crucial role in creating conditions conducive to these situations.

The Final Takeaway

The past ten years have proven the accuracy of most climate predictions made in 2015. The world is experiencing rising temperatures, worsening storms, longer wildfire seasons, and irreversible environmental changes. While climate scientists and policymakers continue to push for urgent action, the reality of 2025 highlights the challenges ahead.

Many of the climate impacts that were once hypothetical are now unfolding in real time. The need for immediate and sustained efforts to mitigate further damage has never been greater. As NASA stated, “Effects that scientists had long predicted would result from global climate change are now occurring, such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.” The evidence is clear: climate change is not a distant concern, but an immediate crisis that demands global attention.