Report: Mass Deportation Would Cost American Taxpayers Nearly $1 Trillion

_{Originally published in The Latino Newsletter–reprinted with permission.}

Earlier today, the American Immigration Council published a new report about the financial costs of mass deportation, an official policy position of the Donald Trump-JD Vance Republican presidential ticket.

As Aaron Reichlin-Melnick notes in a blog post about the report, “an effort to arrest, detain, process, and remove one million undocumented immigrants per year would cost the U.S. government at least $88 billion per year, ultimately adding up to nearly one trillion dollars in taxpayer costs.”

According to Reichlin-Melnick, “the U.S. economy would suffer if 4% of the workforce was deported. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would drop anywhere from 4.2% to 6.8%. By comparison, the U.S. GDP shrank by 4.3% during the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009.”

And there’s more.

“Governments would also see tax revenues fall, as they would lose the $46.8 billion in federal taxes paid by undocumented immigrants and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes. The most impacted states would be California, Texas, and Florida, although every state would see a loss in population,” Reichlin-Melnick writes.

You can download the full report here.

Vance Won’t Answer Mass Deportation Question

Speaking about mass deportation, on Tuesday night, JD Vance was asked twice about it during the Vice Presidential debate. He didn’t answer the question. And at this point, he will likely never answer it.

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Let’s be real. Mass deportation will be part of a Trump-Vance administration.

Thoughts on NBC/Telemundo Latino Voters Poll

The NBC News/Telemundo poll about Latino voters has dominated my feeds since Sunday. Cite me as a journalist and commentator who has been saying this for years: Latino support for Democratic presidential candidates has indeed been decreasing over the last several cycles. Why are people shocked about it? This has always been the historical case.

Did we forget about George W. Bush in 2004?

One point that few mention is that several Latino organizations have been pointing this out as well. These are the same organizations that continue to be unfairly portrayed as propaganda arms of the Democratic Party. Take, for example, the work from UnidosUS (formerly La Raza).

In May, I wrote an MSNBC opinion piece essentially saying that UnidosUS confirmed a truth about Latinos: they are not automatic Democrats, and they are not running to the Republican Party. They are way more independent than we give them credit for.

This is not hard to conclude. The signs have been there for decades. Why should we be surprised now? Because “the Latino vote” has now become a mainstream media point where non-Latino voices are suddenly the experts?

Ah, American journalism.

The Latino organizations I know tell me all the time that Latino voters are persuadable and not tied to a specific party. The bigger issue is how major political parties have not traditionally invested in our communities. This cycle has seen an improvement, but spare me the tired takes about Democratic loyalty. No vote is taken for granted. Political parties have to do the work. It’s that simple.

Episode 8 of The Latino Newsletter podcast gets into all that. If only American political journalists and pundits were having this type of conversation more regularly.

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