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Originally published in The Latino Newsletter–reprinted with permission.
The American Electorate Poll (AEP), described as “a critical cross-check on traditional exit polls,” shared findings about Latino voters in the 2024 election cycle, according to a media release on Wednesday.
The poll of 3,750 Latino voters from October 18-November 14 focused mostly on 10 states (AZ, CA, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, TX, WI) and included an oversample of nearly 800 Puerto Rican voters shows Kamala Harris with a 62%-37% margin over Donald Trump. Harris won with Latino men (51%-48%) and Latina women (66%-32%). Puerto Ricans chose Harris by 65% and Mexican Americans by 63%. The only subgroup that Trump won, the poll noted, was with voters of Cuban descent (54%).
National exit polls on Election Day showed a 52%-46% national Latino advantage for Harris, with 55% Latino men choosing Donald Trump over 43% for Harris. Sixty percent of Latina women voted for Harris and 38% picked Trump. National exit polls had 2,152 Latino respondents.
The memo about the AEP added that Republicans had “a historic night” and “increased support across most demographics including Latinos.” The memo said the Election Day national exit polls “often rely on low and unrepresentative samples of Hispanic voters,” adding that the AEP “adds depth to our understanding of why and how Latinos and other groups voted.”
“Latino voters were not instrumental in the Trump victory. If no Latino had cast a ballot, the outcome would be unchanged,” a slide about the poll said. “This is true at the national level and likely every battleground state. However, had Latinos voted in ways similar to earlier elections, they may have prevented several states from flipping, though it is less clear that they could have reversed the outcome.”
Another slide said that “Exit polls are less reliable on sub-populations, for reasons of sampling and language-of-interview. Some of the exit poll estimates, if correct, would represent inter-election swings far beyond the expectation of most political scientists. To examine their accuracy, BSP and other organizations will examine precinct level data using Ecological Inference to arrive at a point estimate based on actual votes recorded. While we have just begun (precinct data become available slowly after elections), several examples suggest a significant ‘miss’ by the exits.”
The AEP also listed the top issues for Latino voters:
- Cost of living / inflation (52%)
- Jobs and economy (36%)
- Housing costs and affordability (27%)
- Health care costs (25%)
- Abortion and reproductive rights (23%)
In addition, the AEP provided breakdowns of several Latino subgroups. Here is what it shared:
- Latino National (Harris +24)
- Democrat (Harris +88)
- Women 40-59 (Harris +39)
- Central American (Harris +40)
- Women 18-39 (Harris +35)
- Puerto Rican (Harris +30)
- Bilingual Households (Harris +29)
- Mexican (Harris +27)
- Men 60+ (Harris +25)
- Spanish Households (Harris +25)
- Women 60+ (Harris +24)
- Men 40-59 (Harris +20)
- Dominican (Harris +19)
- English Households (Harris +17)
- South American (Harris +14)
- Independent (Harris +17)
- Men 18-39 (Harris +4)
- Cuban (Trump +9)
- Republican (Trump +87)
The findings of this poll were shared on a Wednesday afternoon press call, after an Election Day call was postponed so the “team can review the final election numbers at the county and precinct level.”
The video of the full press call is here.
An interactive version of the poll is here.
These are the breakdowns of respondents:
- N=500 per: Florida
- N=400 per: Pennsylvania, other states
- N=300 per: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, California
- N=200 per: Michigan, Wisconsin
- N=790 per: Puerto Rican voters
The margin of error was +/-1.62%, and the survey was available in English and Spanish, according to respondent preference. It was a mixed-mode format: 75% online and 25% live telephone interviews,
This poll was conducted by BSP Research, whose co-founder was a pollster for the Harris campaign, and the African American Research Collaborative.
It was sponsored by SEIU, UnidosUS, First Nations Development Institute, Climate Power, Indivisible, Rural Organizing, Voter Participation Center, America’s Voice, and the American Civil Liberties Union.
Originally published in The Latino Newsletter–reprinted with permission.
Opinion for The Latino Newsletter.
For Latino voters, this election was always about how inflation impacted their everyday lives and economic choices. In polls going back to 2021 and leading up to the 2022 midterm election, Latino voters consistently indicated that the economy was their number one issue, which continues to be so. This election's Latino voter preferences shouldn't have come as a surprise. Historically, presidents who oversaw periods of high inflation often faced challenges in subsequent elections.
Let's remember that Donald Trump did not win the Latino vote. Still, the percentage gains were significant enough to panic Democratic strategists, who viewed this as a moment of reckoning. Undoubtedly, this election marked a pivotal moment in how campaigns reach out to the Latino community.
Moving forward, Democrats can no longer take the Latino vote as a given, and this presents an opportunity for accountability to both parties.
For Democrats, it’s about accountability for their lack of investment in Latino voters. For Trump, it’s about accountability for delivering on economic promises and ensuring Latinos have a seat at the table.
The mission for the nonprofit I lead, Latino Prosperity, is to guarantee that Latinos and Latinas are represented in key government roles that shape economic policy—and, in turn, the economic futures of our community.
With this in mind, I can state the following with certainty: Bidenomics didn't connect with Latino voters.
The Biden/Harris administration made historic investments in the American economy. The administration passed the American Rescue Plan, which invested $1.9 trillion into economic stimulus to help prevent a recession from the pandemic. They also passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which led to necessary investments in the green economy. The stock market surged forward, unemployment was near a 50-year low, and Biden’s economic policies created over 13 million jobs. Nearly 800,000 jobs were in manufacturing, which helped working-class families and communities.
As the voting numbers demonstrated, the Latino community, and many others, didn't embrace the Democratic Party's economic message. The reasons for that may vary, but it ultimately boiled down to inflation and the high cost of essential goods like milk, bread, meats, eggs, and other commodities like housing, insurance, and healthcare.
The Democratic messaging assumed that Latinos would identify with overarching job growth statistics or long-term infrastructure investments.
They didn't.
These policies and messaging could not have an impact on their everyday lives. All that Latinos could see was a reduction in their purchasing power and the “American Dream” slipping away.
A pre-election UnidosUS poll identified the top issues (in order) for the Latino electorate: inflation and the rising cost of living, jobs and the economy, lack of affordable housing and high rents, healthcare, immigration, and border security.
The one issue missing, though, that needs to be listed but captures all is achieving the American Dream. Achieving it is significant for first-generation immigrant families. Homeownership is the most iconic representation of having made it in America. With inflation pinching every penny out of their wallet, Latino working-class families feel further away from achieving homeownership than ever before. Latinos aren't giving up on the American Dream, so they looked for other options.
Bidenomics policies were necessary long-term investments that will be noticeable in years to come, but they have yet to translate into immediate solutions for working-class households. The Democratic message focused too much on other topics like democracy and reproductive rights. Those are important topics too, but it's easier to think of something else if you worry about renting the following month and covering your bills.
The bottom line is that perception of Biden’s policy achievements did not align with the financial realities of working-class families. Meanwhile, Harris struggled to clearly convey how her approach would differ from Biden’s.
Latino voters sent a powerful message: their economic struggles and aspirations are their priority. Navigating a post-COVID economy has been challenging for Latino families, and leaders in both parties must recognize that this was a call to action. Democrats have to realize that their message did not connect with the majority of Americans and nearly half of the Latino community.
Let's be clear: this doesn't mean that Trump did a great job of reaching out to Latinos. He didn't. However, history will prove that this election marked when Latinos made it clear that campaigns must work hard to earn their vote.
Originally published in The Latino Newsletter–reprinted with permission.
As the 2024 election season unfolds, the Latino Election Project from The Latino Newsletter and New England Public Media features the work of student producers Ian Burger, Halima Mohamed, and Evanni Santos with support from Donyel Le’Noir Felton. The team is reporting on election cycle stories through the lens of the Latino community in western Massachusetts.
This is part five of a five-part series. The entire series is here.
SPRINGFIELD, MA — National exit polls revealed that Donald Trump achieved historic support among Latino voters, securing 45% of their votes—a level not reached by a Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. In western Massachusetts cities like Holyoke and Springfield, where Latinos make up nearly half the population, preliminary results showed a noticeable shift toward Republican candidates.
To understand these voting trends, local Latina and Latino leaders shared their perspectives.
Xiomara DeLobato, vice president and chief of staff at the Economic Development Council of Western Massachusetts, wasn’t surprised by Trump’s support among Latino men, attributing it in part to cultural factors.
“That ingrained cultural machismo that we see a lot in the Latino community—it’s not a secret,” she said. “That misogyny that is very ingrained in our culture as a whole, right? All of Latin America, all of our countries in our heritage, it is, we're talking like centuries old.”
Holyoke Mayor Joshua Garcia saw Trump’s appeal as partly rooted in shared conservative values among many Latinos, alongside broader frustrations felt nationwide.
“The conservative ideas and values that most Latino cultures uphold on important issues that we all debate about across the country. And I think there's just a combination of factors that weighed in to why we saw what we saw,” he said.
Garcia also emphasized that national election outcomes shouldn’t overshadow local unity.
“It's frustrating because we all work so hard to foster unity, to foster collaboration, around our city,” he said. “And I just urge everybody not to let these results and other noise distract us from who we are as people, as human beings and what we have built together here.”
Springfield City Councilor Jose Delgado, who has observed a shift toward conservatism among Latinos, was similarly unsurprised by the election results.
“We all have different kinds of ideologies. And that’s something that I’ve noticed for a while,” Delgado said. “And I think that really played out in this election. You take Massachusetts aside, right? We’re kind of in our own little bubble. It’s obviously a blue state, but when I started reading some of the stuff that I was hearing from Latinos who are voting in Southern states, the stats showed that more and more are starting to lean right. Or more conservative.”
DeLobato also highlighted the economy as a major influence on voter behavior.
“We feel the impact to our purse,” she said, noting that many associated these economic concerns with the Biden-Harris administration, “when it’s a tax plan and economic plan that was inherited from the former administration.”
The team also spoke with voters in Springfield’s predominantly Latino North End, where economic issues were top of mind. While some voiced concerns about the economy, that didn’t necessarily translate into Republican support.
Ana Fontanez, who voted for Harris, said in Spanish that “Kamala is a Democrat, and Democrats have always supported the poor and the humble.”
“They support us because we’re in a country where we want to move forward and look to the future,” she added.
Jose Matias, another Springfield voter, explained his support for Harris over Trump, citing Trump’s treatment of Puerto Rico.
“The only ones that are going for Trump are unfortunately the Latinos that think they’re going to get money from him, which is not going to happen,” he said. “But after the comedian that roasted Puerto Rico, we definitely jumped on and said, you know what, screw him. And we’re definitely going to go with Harris.”
One thing is certain: the 2024 election highlights the diversity within the Latino electorate. Latinos are not a monolith. They are increasingly independent and prepared to hold both parties accountable.
Voces latinas reflexionan sobre los resultados de 2024
Las encuestas de salida nacionales revelan un apoyo histórico a Donald Trump entre votantes latinos, alcanzando el 45% de sus votos, un nivel que un candidato republicano no obtenía desde George W. Bush en 2004. En ciudades del oeste de Massachusetts como Holyoke y Springfield, donde los latinos representan casi la mitad de la población, los resultados preliminares muestran un cambio notable hacia los candidatos republicanos.
Para entender estas tendencias de votación, líderes latinos y latinas locales comparten sus perspectivas.
Xiomara DeLobato, vicepresidenta y jefa de gabinete del Consejo de Desarrollo Económico del Oeste de Massachusetts, no está sorprendida por el apoyo de los hombres latinos a Trump, atribuyéndolo en parte a factores culturales.
“Ese machismo cultural que vemos mucho en la comunidad latina, no es un secreto”, comenta. “Esa misoginia está muy integrada en nuestra cultura en general. Toda América Latina, todos nuestros países y nuestra herencia, estamos hablando de algo que tiene siglos de antigüedad”.
El alcalde de Holyoke, Joshua García, percibe el apoyo a Trump como reflejo de los valores conservadores que muchos latinos comparten, junto con frustraciones a nivel nacional.
“Las ideas y valores conservadores, que la mayoría de las culturas latinas sostienen en temas importantes que todos debatimos en el país. Y creo que es una combinación de factores que influyeron en lo que vimos”, dice García.
García también enfatiza que los resultados nacionales no deberían opacar la unidad local.
“Es frustrante porque todos trabajamos muy duro para fomentar la unidad y la colaboración en nuestra ciudad”, explica. “Les pido a todos que no dejemos que estos resultados nos distraigan de lo que somos como personas, como seres humanos y de lo que hemos construido juntos aquí”.
El concejal de Springfield, José Delgado, quien ve a más latinos inclinarse hacia ideas conservadoras, no se sorprende por los resultados de las elecciones.
“Todos tenemos diferentes tipos de ideologías. Y eso es algo que he notado desde hace tiempo”, comenta Delgado. “Creo que realmente se reflejó en esta elección. Dejando a un lado a Massachusetts, estamos en nuestra propia burbuja. Es obvio que es un estado azul, pero cuando comencé a leer y escuchar de los latinos que están votando en los estados del sur, las estadísticas mostraban que cada vez más empiezan a inclinarse hacia la derecha o más conservadores.”
De Lobato también destaca la economía como una influencia importante en las elecciones.
“Sentimos el impacto en nuestros bolsillos,” dice, señalando que muchos asociaban estas preocupaciones económicas con la administración de Biden-Harris, “aunque es un plan tributario y económico que fue heredado de la administración anterior.”
El equipo también habla con votantes en el vecindario predominantemente latino de North End en Springfield, donde las preocupaciones económicas ocupan un lugar destacado. Aunque algunos expresaron inquietudes sobre la economía, esto no necesariamente se traduce en apoyo a los republicanos.
Ana Fontanez, quien votó por Harris, dice: “Kamala es demócrata y siempre los demócratas están a favor de los pobres y de los más humildes”.
“Nos apoyan, porque estamos en un país donde queremos seguir adelante y mirar hacia el futuro”, añade.
Otro votante de Springfield, José Matías, explica su apoyo a Harris sobre Trump, citando el trato de Trump a Puerto Rico.
“Los únicos que están con Trump son, desafortunadamente, los latinos que piensan que van a obtener dinero de él, lo cual no va a suceder”, comenta. “Pero después de la forma en que trató a Puerto Rico, definitivamente dijimos, ya sabes qué, no gracias. Y definitivamente vamos a apoyar a Harris”.
Lo que queda claro es que la elección de 2024 confirma la diversidad dentro del electorado latino. Los latinos no son un sector homogéneo. Son cada vez más independientes y están listos para exigir responsabilidad a ambos partidos.
Ésta es la quinta y última entrega de una serie de cinco partesEl Proyecto Electoral Latino.
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